منابع مشابه
Ambiguous Tipping Points∗
We analyze the policy implications of aversion to Knightian uncertainty (or ambiguity) about the possibility of tipping points. We demonstrate two channels through which uncertainty aversion affects optimal policy in the general setting. The first channel relates to the policy’s effect on the probability of tipping, and the second channel to its differential impact in the preand post-tipping re...
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Thomas Schelling’s spacial proximity model illustrated how racial segregation can emerge, unwanted, from the actions of citizens acting in accordance with their individual local preferences. One of the earliest agent-based models, it is closely related both to the spin-1 models of statistical physics, and to cascading phenomena on networks. Here a 1-dimensional unperturbed variant of the model ...
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To help realize the potential of complex systems models we need new measures appropriate for capturing processes that exhibit feedback, nonlinearity, heterogeneity, and emergence. As part of a larger research project encompassing several categories of dynamical properties this paper provides formal and general definitions of tipping point-related phenomena. For each tipping concept this paper p...
متن کاملStochastic tipping points in climate dynamics.
A crucial question recently raised in climate dynamics concerns abrupt climate transitions: Are they due to a tipping point (TP) being exceeded, or is fast noisy dynamics the cause of their excitation? In this respect, a case study based on a low-order ocean model is developed to show that in an excitable dynamical system perturbed by noise (a possible climate condition) the TPs may have limite...
متن کاملTipping points in the climate system
In climatic time series abrupt changes are observed. We hypothesize that these abrupt changes are due to nonlinear responses inherent in the climate system, specifically, so-called tipping points. This behaviour result from non-linear climate response to either external forcing, internal stochastic fluctuations or a combination of both. At some point the forcing will cause the climate to jump f...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0028-0836,1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/542295b